Report Template

Clifton Green

Burton Green

Clifton with Rawcliffe

St Wilfrid’s

Haxby Road

Meeting:	Decision Session - Executive Member for Children, Young People and Education
Meeting date:	14 January 2025
Report of:	Maxine Squire, Assistant Director, Education and Skills Rachelle White, Schools Admissions Manager Claire Roberts, Place Planning Officer
Portfolio of:	Executive Member for Children, Young People and Education

Decision Report: Coordinated Admissions Schemes and Admission Arrangements for 2026-2027 School Year

Subject of Report - Admission Arrangements for 2026-2027 School Admissions

1. This report seeks approval of the admissions policies and published admission numbers for community and voluntary controlled schools – schools for whom the City of York Council is the admission authority – for the school year beginning in September 2026.

2. It also seeks approval of the coordinated admissions schemes for the City of York area – for which the City of York Council is the coordinating Local Authority – for applications to start the school year beginning in September 2026.

3. It also seeks a decision as to whether to support, not support or remain impartial for any amendments to admission arrangements for Multi Academy Trusts who are their own admission authority.

Benefits and Challenges

4. The benefits of the Admission Consultation and decision- making process is to ensure that as a Local Authority we are fulfilling our statutory duty to provide school places for children residing in the city and our sufficiency requirement.

5. The main risk is that some proposed requests are being made by Academy Trusts, who are their own Admission Authority. We can only support or not support the proposal but ultimately the decision is made by the Trust and not City of York Council.

6. Under the terms of the Education Act 1996, the Local Authority has a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient places are available for every child of school age, to promote diversity, parental choice and high educational standards; to ensure fair access to educational opportunity; and to help fulfil every child's educational potential. Academy trusts should work collaboratively with LAs, dioceses and other schools in the area, to ensure that there is a co-ordinated approach to place planning and delivery. The Department for Education has a strong expectation that academy trusts will support LAs to meet the Sufficiency Duty by providing additional places where they are needed and reducing the number of places offered where they are surplus to requirements.

Policy Basis for Decision

7. The co-ordination of school admissions is a statutory duty of the local authority and supports Article 2 of the Human Rights legislation that no person should be denied the right to education.

Financial Strategy Implications

8. There are no financial strategy implications. The local authority receives funding from the central services block of the dedicated schools block to deliver the statutory duty to co-ordinate admissions.

Recommendation and Reasons

9. The Executive Member for Children, Young People and Education is recommended to approve, accept and support the proposed changes to the Admission Arrangements for September 2026-2027 based on the evidence shown in the Options Analysis and Evidential Basis section of this report.

Reason: To ensure that City of York Council continue to meet their statutory duty as set out in the terms of the Education Act 1996 and also work collaboratively with Academy Trusts to meet that duty whilst also appreciating the financial pressure on schools and trusts.

Background

10. It is the duty of the admission authority to carry out a consultation each year on admission arrangements where these have changed, or at least once every seven years. Admission arrangements include the admissions policy and the published admission number (PAN) for each school. City of York Council carries out a coordinated consultation on admission arrangements every year.

11. In the case of maintained schools, the admission authority is the local authority (LA), whilst for voluntary aided or academy schools it is the governing body or academy trust of the school.

12. As academies have come together in multi-academy trusts (MATs), the admission arrangements have been increasingly set by the trust boards of these MATs as the admission authority for all schools within the MAT. As the number of academies in York has increased and resulted in larger trusts, the centralisation of the policy and admissions functions has become more prevalent. However, in some cases the matter for setting an individual school’s admission arrangements may be delegated to the Local Governing Committee of an individual academy; this has not occurred for admissions for 2026 - 2027.

13. Admission policies detail the admission arrangements, what information should be provided by applicants and how preferences will be ordered according to the oversubscription criteria should schools be oversubscribed – that is where there are more applications for places than there are places available.

14. Published admissions numbers (PANs) are important because they relate to the maximum number of children it is intended to admit in the year of entry (reception in primary and infant schools, year 3 in junior schools, and year 7 in secondary schools). For year 12 entry in secondary schools, this number is the intended number of external applicants to be admitted, that is excluding those that attended Year 11 at that school who meet the required academic standards and continue into Year 12.

15. Separate from the responsibility to set admission arrangements for its schools, it is also the duty of the LA to have in place area-wide coordinated admissions schemes for each coordinated year of entry. These schemes apply to all state funded schools in the LA area and detail how and when applications can be made and coordination between admission authorities and local authorities will take place.

16. Previous member decisions have been to agree with the recommendations made within Admission Consultation reports, however this is after suitable scrutiny and questioning which has then determined the additional detail added to subsequent reports.

Consultation Analysis

17. After an invitation from the LA, all admission authorities within the LA area have agreed to take part in a joint consultation to provide parents, schools and other interested parties with the admissions arrangements for 2026 – 2027 in one place for those taking part.

18. Where a MAT are changing their admission arrangements they are also holding their own admission consultation in the Autumn to request responses through their own MAT website and school websites. Responses are considered prior to determination.

19. LA officers have continued to support MATs and existing academies with the formulation of their admission arrangements, many of which now have arrangements that are operationally identical to the LA’s own arrangements. Following the work which was jointly undertaken in 2017 with partner admission authorities, officers have continued to work with trusts in the development and maintenance of common definitions and practices between the policies of these schools, the LA, and the MATs where possible.

20. This work assists academies with their admission arrangements and supports schools with their responsibilities, which were previously the responsibility of the LA, but also ensures the admissions policies of all non-faith schools are aligned where possible. This work has continued the consistency of the admissions process especially where policies are the same as the LA policy.

21. Although coordinated by the LA, the responsibility for the formulation, determination and consultation of admission arrangements for schools for which the LA is not the admission authority remains the responsibility of the respective governing body/academy trust.

22. The School Admissions Code of Practice 2021 (School admissions code 2021) requires that where consultation takes place it must be for a minimum of 6 weeks between 01 October and 31 January. Determination of these admission arrangements by admission authorities must be completed by 28 February 2025 for the school year beginning in September 2026. This timeframe means that consultation on arrangements takes place up to 23 months before children would be due to start school.

23. Neighbouring LAs, school head teachers, governing bodies, dioceses, and those that had previously expressed a continued interest in school admissions in York were sent details of the consultation. The views of residents and parents/carers were also sought, although as is common, only a small number of residents responded via online survey or in writing.

24. The consultation ran from 7^th October until 18^th November 2024 and included admission arrangements for schools in the LA area for the 2026 - 2027 school year as listed in the annexes. Information was made widely available online and publicised by schools and the LA in newsletters and notices with reminders sent to all school offices and head teachers and requested to be forwarded to their respective Chair of Governors via email.

In previous years the number of responses have been minimal and not directly relating to the admission arrangements.

Options Analysis and Evidential Basis

25. The recommendations in this report have been prepared following consultation with schools and others. The Executive Member can approve, reject or modify the proposals relating to community and voluntary controlled schools contained in this report and attached annexes.

26. The Executive Member may also choose to support or if objecting may raise a statutory objection to voluntary aided and academy schools admission arrangements, though these bodies will have undertaken a parallel process of determining their arrangements since the consultation closed, and therefore some may have already formally determined their arrangements.

Published Admission Numbers (PAN)

27. The following general principles should apply when considering increases in PANs:

28. The school should have enough physical space to accommodate a full complement of children in each year group, based on the proposed number (or agreement from the local authority to provide additional space). Alternatively, there must be firm capital project plans in place to provide any additional accommodation required and the required funding must be secure.

29. The increase should form part of the agreed place planning strategy for the area. This means that there should be sufficient demand from within the school’s catchment area (if applicable), or from across the wider community, to limit the risk of drawing increased numbers of pupils away from other schools.

30. The proposed number should enable relatively straightforward organisation of classes, bearing in mind the infant class size limit of 30 children per fully qualified teacher for reception, year 1 and year 2 pupils.

31. The following general principles should apply when considering decreases in PANs:

32. The school must still be able to accommodate demand from within their local area (catchment area, parish or priority area).

33. The requested number should enable or facilitate relatively straightforward organisation of classes, bearing in mind the infant class size limit of 30 children per fully qualified teacher for reception, year 1 and year 2 pupils.

34. Schools should not make permanent or significant changes to the school premises to reduce the capacity of the school without consultation with City of York Council as PAN increases may be required in the future; for example, if there is a significant increase in birth rates, increase in children living within catchment such as new housing developments or any fundamental changes within the city that may require schools to increase their PAN.

Maintained School Proposals

35. There are five maintained school PAN change requests within the admission arrangements for 2026-2027.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Clifton Green Primary School	Reduce PAN from 60 to 45 pupils	Approve	To enable school to have a more efficient and effective resourcing model. Clifton Green Primary School has been significantly undersubscribed (less than 80% full) over recent years so this will reduce the surplus of school places within the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Clifton Green Primary School from 60 to 45

36. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	45
Y1	59
Y2	50
Y3	61
Y4	54
Y5	56
Y6	57
NOR	382

Birth Rates

37. Birth rates have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	79	81	68	77	52	54	54	54

38. Clifton Green tends to have negative birth to reception migration (meaning more children are born in the catchment than are living there when applying for reception places). The percentage drop has reduced in recent years but is still an average of -28.3%.

39. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the catchment suggests that the migration is becoming more variable but that numbers continue to be lower than previously in the catchment following the reduction in birth rate.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				56	59	46	54
Age 1			64	53	48	52
Age 2		64	60	61	47
Age 3	59	65	60	59
Age 4	61	64	61

In year migration

40. Cohorts at Clifton Green change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for children moving into the catchment area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						60	59
Current Y2					50	50	50
Current Y3				53	52	58	61
Current Y4			56	57	53	53	54
Current Y5		54	57	58	54	55	56
Current Y6	58	58	55	55	50	53	57

Planning Area Forecasts

41. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 2 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN to reduce the number of surplus places.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	179	167	163	141	142	142	142
Reception capacity	210	210	210	210	210	210	210
Surplus	31	43	47	69	68	68	68

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1269	1238	1219	1185	1144	1097	1078
Whole school capacity	1605	1575	1545	1515	1500	1485	1470
Surplus	336	337	326	330	356	388	392

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	179	167	163	141	142	142	142
Reception capacity	210	210	195	195	195	195	195
Surplus	31	43	32	54	53	53	53

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1269	1238	1219	1185	1144	1097	1078
Whole school capacity	1605	1575	1530	1485	1455	1425	1395
Surplus	336	337	311	300	311	328	317

42. The PAN change would go some way to reducing the projected surplus in school places in the planning area.

Individual School Forecast

43. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Clifton Green for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	48	53	42	40	40
Year 1	44	49	53	41	40
Year 2	62	46	51	54	42
Year 3	52	64	47	52	55
Year 4	61	53	64	47	52
Year 5	54	62	53	64	47
Year 6	55	55	62	53	64

44. This suggests a PAN change to 45 from 2026/27 onwards would be viable.

Catchments of children allocated Clifton Green

	Clifton Green	Burton Green	Clifton with Rawcliffe	St Barnabas	Other
2024/25	27	11	4	3	3
2023/24	25	10	1	1	1
2022/23	27	15	6		7
2021/22	33	12	4	1	4

45. Reducing the PAN at Clifton Green would have some impact on other local schools as up to half of the children allocated places live outside the Clifton Green catchment. However, the current and forecast surplus is large enough to accommodate them in their catchment or alternative schools in the planning area.

Schools attended by children from Clifton Green catchment

Children from the Clifton Green catchment attend a range of schools. Should there be any difficulty with them continuing to be placed in any of the other schools, there should be space within Clifton Green Primary following a PAN change.

Housing Developments

46. There is one housing development planned in the area at Bootham Crescent. The projected pupil yield from the development has been accounted for in forecasts so places should be available for children from the development without competing with other applications.

Recommendations

47. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Copmanthorpe Primary School	Reduce PAN from 60 to 30 pupils	Approve	To enable school to have a more efficient and effective resourcing model. Copmanthorpe Primary School has been very significantly undersubscribed (less than 60% full) over recent years so this will reduce the surplus of school places within the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Copmanthorpe Primary School from 60 to 30

48. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	34
Y1	33
Y2	50
Y3	51
Y4	52
Y5	54
Y6	59
NOR	333

Birth Rates

49. Birth rates have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	27	18	22	16	19	16	16	16

50. Copmanthorpe has a high birth to reception net migration (average 42%). It varies year to year, with the highest recent migration rate being 80% with families moving into catchment between birth and school start. If this rate is repeated, there would be more children living in catchment than places available with a PAN of 30.

51. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the Copmanthorpe Primary School catchment suggests that birth to reception migration continues to be high:

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				25	16	22	25
Age 1			24	25	19	26
Age 2		27	24	27	20
Age 3	40	30	27	30
Age 4	40	31	32

In year migration

52. Copmanthorpe has positive average migration, with more children joining the school through in-year transfers than leaving it. This means that when considering any reduction in PAN, account should be taken of the capacity for children to join the cohort throughout primary.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						36	33
Current Y2					45	46	50
Current Y3				50	51	52	51
Current Y4			53	53	51	52	52
Current Y5		52	53	52	52	52	54
Current Y6	59	58	60	59	60	60	59

Planning Area Forecasts

53. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 5 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN to reduce the number of surplus places.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	180	157	163	139	139	139	139
Reception capacity	230	230	230	230	230	230	230
Surplus	50	73	67	91	91	91	91

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1399	1329	1278	1206	1131	1100	1057
Whole school capacity	1640	1630	1620	1610	1610	1610	1610
Surplus	241	301	342	404	479	510	553

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	180	157	163	139	139	139	139
Reception capacity	230	230	200	200	200	200	200
Surplus	50	73	37	61	61	61	61

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1399	1329	1278	1206	1131	1100	1057
Whole school capacity	1650	1615	1550	1485	1425	1380	1335
Surplus	251	286	272	279	294	280	278

54. The PAN change would go some way to reducing the projected surplus in school places in the planning area.

Individual School Forecast

55. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Copmanthorpe Primary School for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	32	27	31	26	26
Year 1	33	31	26	30	25
Year 2	35	35	32	28	32
Year 3	48	33	33	31	27
Year 4	48	49	34	34	32
Year 5	55	49	50	34	34
Year 6	53	54	48	49	34

Catchments of children allocated Copmanthorpe Primary School

	Copmanthorpe	Dringhouses	St Mary’s	Woodthorpe	Other
2024/25	25			3	3
2023/24	27	1	1		1
2022/23	32	1		2
2021/22	39			2	3

56. Reducing the PAN at Copmanthorpe would have little impact on other local schools as only a small number of children allocated places come from outside the Copmanthorpe catchment.

Schools attended by children from Copmanthorpe Primary School catchment

	Copmanthorpe	Rufforth	St Mary’s	Other
2024/25	25		2	4
2023/24	27		2
2022/23	32	1	1
2021/22	39			2

57. Very few children from the Copmanthorpe catchment attend schools outside Copmanthorpe and, due to the location of Copmanthorpe, there are no schools that can be deemed a reasonable offer for children living in Copmanthorpe but unable to attend the school. Therefore, the PAN must be sufficient to enable all children living in the catchment to be able to attend.

Housing Developments

58. Two housing developments are planned in the area:

- 75 dwellings to the south-east of Moor Lane: planning permission has been granted so this development is likely to be built within the next three years. 22 of the houses are 2 to 4 bedroom affordable homes and therefore likely to be occupied by families with preschool or school-aged children. Analysis of recent developments suggests there could be an additional 23 - 35 primary aged pupils within two years of development, including 3 – 7 reception pupils. This could mean more children living in catchment than places available.

- 140 dwellings to the south of Tadcaster Road: this strategic site already has outline planning permission and is currently submitted at the reserved matters stage making it likely to start within the next three years. Includes 34 2 to 4 bedroom affordable homes. This could add an additional 43 - 65 primary aged pupils, including 5 – 13 reception pupils.

Recommendations

59. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so. However, the school should be prepared to exceed the PAN if places are needed for children living in the Copmanthorpe catchment.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Ralph Butterfield Primary School	Reduce PAN from 50 to 45 pupils	Approve	To enable school to have a more efficient and effective resourcing model and improve the school organisation structure.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Ralph Butterfield Primary School from 50 to 45

60. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	41
Y1	50
Y2	36
Y3	47
Y4	43
Y5	47
Y6	44
NOR	308

Birth Rates

61. Birth rates have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	29	30	26	25	24	21	21	21

62. Ralph Butterfield tends to have positive birth to reception migration (meaning more children live in the catchment by school starting age than were born there). It should therefore be noted that more children are likely to be living in the catchment by school age than recent birth rates show.

63. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the catchment suggests that although there is still positive birth to reception migration, overall numbers continue to reduce, reflecting the fall in birth rate.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				27	24	26	26
Age 1			35	29	25	32
Age 2		42	36	29	29
Age 3	29	42	41	27
Age 4	28	43	39

In year migration

64. Cohorts at Ralph Butterfield change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for children moving into the area. With a number of schools within a short distance, this could be considered across the planning area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						50	50
Current Y2					33	35	36
Current Y3				45	45	44	47
Current Y4			38	39	41	42	43
Current Y5		39	40	41	44	47	47
Current Y6	42	41	45	44	48	45	44

Planning Area Forecasts

65. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 9 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN as there is a large number of surplus places.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	103	83	103	80	80	81	80
Reception capacity	135	135	135	135	135	135	135
Surplus	32	52	32	55	55	54	55

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	818	781	766	726	700	665	625
Whole school capacity	945	945	945	945	945	945	945
Surplus	127	164	179	219	245	280	320

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	103	83	103	80	80	81	80
Reception capacity	135	135	130	130	130	130	130
Surplus	32	52	32	55	55	54	55

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	818	781	766	726	700	665	625
Whole school capacity	945	945	940	935	930	925	920
Surplus	127	164	174	209	230	260	295

66. Even with the reduced PAN at Ralph Butterfield, a growing surplus is forecast.

Individual School Forecast

67. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Ralph Butterfield for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	50	37	36	31	31
Year 1	41	50	37	36	31
Year 2	50	42	51	37	36
Year 3	38	53	45	54	39
Year 4	50	40	56	47	56
Year 5	41	48	39	54	45
Year 6	45	41	47	39	53

68. This suggests a PAN change to 45 from 2026/27 onwards would be viable.

Catchments of children allocated Ralph Butterfield

	Ralph Butterfield	Headlands	New Earswick	Wigginton	Other
2024/25	23	8	4	9	6
2023/24	29	3	2		6
2022/23	36	3	2	2	7
2021/22	22	3	1	2	4

69. Reducing the PAN at Ralph Butterfield would have some impact on other local schools as many of the children allocated places live outside the Ralph Butterfield catchment. However, the current and forecast surplus is large enough to accommodate them in their catchment or alternative schools in the planning area.

Schools attended by children from Ralph Butterfield catchment

	Ralph Butterfield	Headlands	Wigginton	Other
2024/25	23	2	1	1
2023/24	29	3	3	0
2022/23	36	5	3	1
2021/22	22	4	1	1

70. As so few children from the catchment are allocated schools other than Ralph Butterfield, it would be possible to accommodate them either at Ralph Butterfield or other local schools.

Housing Developments

71. There is one large housing development planned in the area north of Haxby. In the short term, it will be possible to accommodate children from the development in local schools. Numbers in the three schools will be monitored as the development is built to ensure surplus places are filled before any increase in PAN or new school building is proposed.

Recommendations

72. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as this will support effective school organisation.

73.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
St Barnabas’ CE Primary School (going through academisation to Pathfinder Multi Academy Trust but conversion date to be confirmed)	Reduce PAN from 30 to 15 pupils	Approve	School has been very significantly undersubscribed (less than 50% full) for a number of years. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

School

Proposal

Recommendation

Reason

St Barnabas’ CE Primary School

(going through academisation to Pathfinder Multi Academy Trust but conversion date to be confirmed)

Reduce PAN from 30 to 15 pupils

Approve

School has been very significantly undersubscribed (less than 50% full) for a number of years. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at St Barnabas CE Primary School from 30 to 15

74. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	17
Y1	9
Y2	17
Y3	19
Y4	8
Y5	13
Y6	17
NOR	100

Birth Rates

75. Birth rates have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual Births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	40	40	37	31	30	27	27	27

76. The school’s catchment has negative birth to reception net migration (average -56.6%). It varies year to year, but for the last 3 years has maintained less than 50% of children born in the catchment being resident when starting school.

77. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the school’s catchment suggests that birth to reception migration continues to be negative:

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				26	24	20	23
Age 1			23	20	23	19
Age 2		19	20	24	23
Age 3	24	18	17	24
Age 4	22	16	19

Planning Area Forecasts

78. Forecasts within the Primary Planning Area 3 suggest there would still be surplus capacity if St Barnabas reduces its PAN.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	179	180	168	156	161	165	170
Reception capacity	210	210	210	210	210	210	210
Surplus	31	30	42	54	49	45	40

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1320	1300	1320	1310	1286	1302	1282
Whole school capacity	1620	1560	1500	1470	1470	1470	1470
Surplus	300	260	180	160	184	168	188

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	179	180	168	156	161	165	170
Reception capacity	210	210	195	195	195	195	195
Surplus	31	30	27	39	34	30	25

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1320	1300	1320	1310	1286	1302	1282
Whole school capacity	1620	1560	1485	1455	1440	1425	1410
Surplus	300	260	165	145	154	123	128

79. The PAN change would go some way to reducing the projected surplus in school places in the planning area.

Individual School Forecast

80. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at St Barnabas for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	13	12	11	10	10
Year 1	15	11	10	9	9
Year 2	10	16	12	11	10
Year 3	12	8	13	9	9
Year 4	20	12	8	13	9
Year 5	8	19	11	8	12
Year 6	14	8	19	11	8

Catchments of children allocated St Barnabas

	St Barnabas	Carr Infant	Poppleton Road	Other
2024/25	10			1
2023/24	12	2	1	1
2022/23	5		1	1
2021/22	13		2	3

81. Reducing the PAN at St Barnabas would have little impact on other local schools as there are only small numbers coming to the school from other catchments.

Schools attended by children from St Barnabas catchment

	St Barnabas	Poppleton Road	Clifton Green	Other
2024/25	10	6	3	7
2023/24	12	3	1	2
2022/23	5	3		8
2021/22	13	4	1	5

82. Children from St Barnabas catchment attend a wide range of other schools. With surplus capacity currently available across most planning areas, it is unlikely that large numbers will return to requiring capacity for the full catchment total at St Barnabas within the next few years. However, it should be noted that St Barnabas may not be able to offer places to all catchment children if the PAN is reduced to 15.

Housing Developments

83. Two housing developments are planned in the area:

- York Central: housing applications have not yet been submitted and the housing mix on the development is not known. Up to 2500 dwellings are proposed, which will comprise of flats and houses. Development was originally planned to start in 2025 and take more than 15 years to complete, but may not run to the original trajectory.

- British Sugar: although this development is unlikely to have a direct impact on St Barnabas, it may mean schools in the area are filled making them less available to children from the St Barnabas catchment.

Recommendations

84. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Westfield Primary School	Reduce PAN from 80 to 60 pupils	Approve	Westfield Primary School reduced the PAN from 90 to 80 for 2023-2024 admissions. However a further reduction to 60 would allow for a more efficient and effective school organisation and reduce surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Westfield Primary Community School from 80 to 60

84. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	67
Y1	52
Y2	59
Y3	79
Y4	66
Y5	68
Y6	74
NOR	465

Birth Rates

85. Birth rates have fallen in recent years (apart from 2020/21 for 2025/26 entry) and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	114	98	90	120	108	88	88	88

86. Westfield has traditionally had negative birth to reception migration. However, for the last two years, this has reversed so more children are living in catchment for reception than were born there. Therefore, any consideration of birth rates should take into account possible additional children living in catchment by the time they start school.

87. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the catchment suggests that the birth to reception migration continues to be positive.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				83	109	104	85
Age 1			98	82	123	111
Age 2		93	94	92	115
Age 3	129	91	104	96
Age 4	126	100	103

In year migration

88. Cohorts at Westfield change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for children moving into the catchment area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						51	52
Current Y2					57	60	59
Current Y3				81	78	83	79
Current Y4			60	59	63	65	66
Current Y5		63	60	60	60	65	68
Current Y6	85	83	82	79	76	77	74

Planning Area Forecasts

89. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 4 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN to reduce the number of surplus places. These numbers account for the possibility of two other schools in the planning area reducing their PANs.

90. Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	228	228	228	228	228
Surplus	85	61	40	72	72	71	71

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1806	1766	1726	1686	1656
Surplus	305	327	324	377	405	402	427

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	208	208	208	208	208
Surplus	85	61	20	52	52	51	51

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1786	1726	1666	1606	1556
Surplus	305	327	304	337	345	322	327

Individual School Forecast

91. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Westfield for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	53	64	59	48	48
Year 1	68	54	65	60	49
Year 2	54	70	56	67	62
Year 3	59	53	69	55	66
Year 4	82	61	55	71	57
Year 5	68	84	62	56	72
Year 6	66	68	84	62	56

92. This suggests a PAN change to 60 from 2026/27 onwards would be viable.

Catchments of children allocated Westfield

	Westfield	Acomb	Hob Moor	Woodthorpe	Other
2024/25	43	2	2	5	3
2023/24	53	4	3	7	4
2022/23	36	5	3	3	1
2021/22	56		1	3	1

93. Reducing the PAN at Westfield would have some impact on other local schools as some of the children allocated places live outside the Westfield catchment. However, the current and forecast surplus is large enough to accommodate them in their catchment or alternative schools in the planning area.

Schools attended by children from Westfield catchment

	Westfield	Carr	Dring-houses	Hob Moor	OLQM	Poppleton Ousebank	Wood-thorpe	Other
24/25	43	8	4	11	8	6	7	15
23/24	53	4	6	3	11	2	10	12
22/23	36	6	1	12	9	3	13	14
21/22	56	8	3	15	17	3	13	12

94. Children from Westfield catchment attend a wide range of schools and there would not be capacity in Westfield for all the children living in catchment. It is likely that a range of schools will continue to be chosen and therefore a large majority of children in the catchment could continue to be allocated preference schools.

Housing Developments

95. There is one housing development currently under construction at Lowfield Green (in a neighbouring catchment). Although there has not been a large primary pupil yield so far, this looks likely to grow but could be accommodated across schools in the area.

Recommendations

96. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

VA and Academy Proposals

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Hob Moor Primary School	Reduce PAN from 45 to 30 pupils	Support	School has been undersubscribed for a number of years. Classes can be more efficiently organised with a reduced PAN. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Hob Moor Primary School from 45 to 30

97. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	30
Y1	38
Y2	34
Y3	42
Y4	35
Y5	46
Y6	38
NOR	263

Birth Rates

98. Birth rates have fallen in recent years (apart from 2020/21 for 2025/26 entry) and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	73	63	59	66	60	51	51	51

99. Hob Moor has negative birth to reception migration. Therefore, there is likely to be a lower number of children living in catchment by the time they are reception age. However, the number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the catchment suggests that here may be not as large a decrease from birth to reception as previously. It should be noted when planning a reduction in PAN that any decrease in birth rate may be mitigated by a larger proportion of children living in the catchment by reception age.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				47	56	59	61
Age 1			59	47	59	60
Age 2		63	60	50	62
Age 3	51	64	60	45
Age 4	52	60	58

In year migration

100. Cohorts at Hob Moor change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for children moving into the catchment area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						39	38
Current Y2					35	34	34
Current Y3				37	38	39	42
Current Y4			32	33	36	35	35
Current Y5		43	44	45	45	46	46
Current Y6	44	41	35	39	40	37	38

Planning Area Forecasts

101. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 4 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN at Hob Moor to reduce the number of surplus places. These numbers include the possibility of two other schools in the planning area reducing their PANs.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	223	223	223	223	223
Surplus	85	61	35	67	67	66	66

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1801	1756	1711	1666	1631
Surplus	305	327	319	367	390	382	402

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	208	208	208	208	208
Surplus	85	61	20	52	52	51	51

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1786	1726	1666	1606	1556
Surplus	305	327	304	337	345	322	327

Individual School Forecast

102. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Hob Moor for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	30	34	31	26	27
Year 1	29	29	33	30	25
Year 2	37	29	29	33	30
Year 3	33	38	29	29	34
Year 4	42	34	38	29	29
Year 5	35	42	34	38	29
Year 6	46	34	41	33	37

103. This suggests a PAN change to 30 from 2026/27 could mean some children, who previously would have been allocated a place, not allocated a place at Hob Moor in 2026/27 but a reduction in PAN is likely to cover all allocations from 2027/28.

Catchments of children allocated Hob Moor

	Hob Moor	Acomb	Westfield	Woodthorpe	Other
2024/25	10	4	11	2	2
2023/24	19	3	3		5
2022/23	16	4	12	3	4
2021/22	15	1	15	1	2

104. Reducing the PAN at Hob Moor could have some impact on other local schools as some of the children allocated places live outside the Hob Moor catchment. However, the current and forecast surplus should be large enough to accommodate them in their catchment or alternative schools in the planning area.

Schools attended by children from Hob Moor catchment

	Hob Moor	Acomb	Dring-houses	OLQM	Westfield	Wood-thorpe	Other
24/25	10	2	19	7	2	2	3
23/24	19	2	13	8	3	5	10
22/23	16	2	13	7	3	9	8
21/22	15	6	6	12	1	1	10

105. Children from Hob Moor catchment attend a wide range of schools and there would not be capacity in Hob Moor for all the children living in catchment. A number of children from Hob Moor catchment attend Dringhouses Primary and any place pressures at Dringhouses could mean children needing places at Hob Moor.

Housing Developments

106. There is one housing development currently under construction at Lowfield Green (in a neighbouring catchment). Although there has not been a large primary pupil yield so far, this looks likely to grow but could be accommodated across schools in the area.

Recommendations

107. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Huntington Primary School	Reduce PAN from 60 to 45 pupils	Support	School has been undersubscribed for a number of years. Classes can be more efficiently organised with a reduced PAN. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Huntington Primary Academy from 60 to 45

108. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	52
Y1	44
Y2	50
Y3	54
Y4	63
Y5	58
Y6	64
NOR	385

Birth Rates

109. Birth rates have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual Births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
	33	33	32	34	27	26	26	26

110. Huntington has previously had positive birth to reception migration with more children living in catchment by the start of school than were born in the catchment. However, 2024/25 entry for the first time had negative birth to reception migration (32 were born in catchment but only 27 are now living in catchment).

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				27	34	29	33
Age 1			37	25	34	35
Age 2		34	40	25	41
Age 3	49	34	40	29
Age 4	48	36	41

111. However, the number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the Huntington Primary Academy catchment suggests that birth to reception migration could return to a positive net migration:

In year migration

112. Huntington Primary Academy has some in-year migration, often with more children joining the school through in-year transfers than leaving it. This means that any reduction in PAN should leave capacity for children to join the cohort throughout primary.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						41	44
Current Y2					47	49	50
Current Y3				54	51	50	54
Current Y4			61	60	60	61	63
Current Y5		58	58	57	58	55	58
Current Y6	60	60	60	61	63	64	64

Planning Area Forecasts

113. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 1 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN to reduce the number of surplus places. These numbers include the possibility of another school in the planning area reducing its PAN.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	200	211	191	170	171	171	171
Reception capacity	275	275	265	265	265	265	265
Surplus	75	64	74	95	94	94	94

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1652	1660	1611	1527	1464	1407	1351
Whole school capacity	1925	1925	1915	1905	1895	1885	1875
Surplus	273	265	304	378	431	478	524

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	200	211	191	170	171	171	171
Reception capacity	275	275	250	250	250	250	250
Surplus	75	64	59	80	79	79	79

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1652	1660	1611	1527	1464	1407	1351
Whole school capacity	1925	1925	1900	1875	1850	1825	1800
Surplus	273	265	289	348	386	418	449

114. The PAN change would go some way to reducing the projected surplus in school places in the planning area.

Individual School Forecast

115. The table below shows the projected pupil numbers at Huntington Primary Academy for the next 5 years. It is worth noting that forecasting at an individual school level increases the risk of inaccuracies that might come about due to changes in parental preferences and migration etc.

	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29
R	45	50	37	37	37
Year 1	56	47	52	38	38
Year 2	44	56	47	52	38
Year 3	53	46	59	50	55
Year 4	55	53	47	59	50
Year 5	65	57	55	48	61
Year 6	58	66	58	56	49

Catchments of children allocated Huntington Primary Academy

	Huntington	Yearsley Grove	Haxby Road	New Earswick	Other
2024/25	21	5	1	1	4
2023/24	27	22			2
2022/23	23	7	3	2	6
2021/22	31	13	1	1	2

116. Reducing the PAN at Huntington would have some impact on other local schools as approximately a third of the children allocated places live outside the Huntington catchment. However, the current and forecast surplus is large enough to accommodate them in their catchment or alternative schools.

Schools attended by children from Huntington Primary Academy catchment

	Huntington	Ralph Butterfield	Robert Wilkinson	Yearsley Grove	Other
2024/25	21	2	1	1	2
2023/24	27	2	2	2	3
2022/23	23	3	2	1	7
2021/22	31	1	2	2	5

117. Children from the Huntington catchment attend a range of schools. Should there be any difficulty with them continuing to be placed in the other schools, there would be space within Huntington Primary Academy following a PAN change.

Housing Developments

118. Three housing developments are planned in the area:

- 970 dwellings north of Monks Cross. Huntington Primary Academy will be the nearest primary to this development. Capacity will be needed at the school from the early stages of the development as families begin to move in. Building could start in 2025 (still awaiting full planning permission).

- 275 dwellings adjacent to New Lane. Although this development is in a different school catchment, it is less than 1 mile from Huntington Primary Academy.

- Slightly further south on New Lane, 107 dwellings will also have an impact on the need for school places in the area.

Recommendations

119. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so. However, capacity should be maintained in the school to increase the PAN when places are needed for children living in planned housing.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
Our Lady Queen of Martyrs RC School	Reduce PAN from 60 to 45 pupils	Support	School has been undersubscribed for a number of years. Classes can be more efficiently organised with a reduced PAN. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at Our Lady Queen of Martyrs RC Primary School from 60 to 45

120. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	42
Y1	36
Y2	59
Y3	62
Y4	61
Y5	62
Y6	40
NOR	362

121. Our Lady Queen of Martyrs’ is included in Primary Planning Area 4 (PPA4) to ensure there are sufficient school places for the local area. Forecasts have been produced for the planning area, based on birth, migration and parental preference rates. The other schools in the planning area are Acomb Primary, Hob Moor Primary, St Paul’s CE Primary and Westfield Community Primary.

Birth Rates

122. Birth rates in PPA4 have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual Births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
PPA4	295	272	224	266	254	205	205	205

123. PPA4 has negative birth to reception migration; more children are born in the catchment than are living there when applying for reception places. The current average reduction is 15% from birth to reception.

124. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the planning area suggests that inward migration is increasing, with more families moving into the area. This may slightly counteract the reduction in birth rates. It is also worth noting that the number of children aged 0 in 2022/23 suggests the ONS projected birth rate may be underestimated.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				199	236	247	236
Age 1			255	198	252	256
Age 2		249	249	212	242
Age 3	260	244	268	217
Age 4	254	252	264

In year migration

125. Cohorts in the planning area change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. The number in each year group can go up or down, with this planning area usually gaining children as they move through primary school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for any children moving into the planning area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						193	193
Current Y2					225	236	225
Current Y3				247	244	252	254
Current Y4			222	221	223	227	233
Current Y5		237	232	232	230	243	246
Current Y6	257	250	249	243	244	247	246

126. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 4 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN at OLQM to reduce the number of surplus places. These numbers include the possibility of two other schools in the planning area reducing their PANs.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	223	223	223	223	223
Surplus	85	61	35	67	67	66	66

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1801	1756	1711	1666	1631
Surplus	305	327	319	367	390	382	402

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	173	197	188	156	156	157	157
Reception capacity	258	258	208	208	208	208	208
Surplus	85	61	20	52	52	51	51

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1549	1518	1482	1389	1321	1284	1229
Whole school capacity	1854	1845	1786	1726	1666	1606	1556
Surplus	305	327	304	337	345	322	327

Catchments of children allocated Our Lady Queen of Martyrs’

127. Reducing the PAN at OLQM would have some impact on other local schools. However, most children come from schools in the same planning area as OLQM where there is a large current and forecast surplus. Other children come from a wide range of schools so any children unable to be placed at OLQM could be accommodated at alternative schools.

Roman Catholic children allocated Our Lady Queen of Martyrs’

	RC living in parish	RC other	Christian	Other*
2024/25	15	1	3	22
2023/24	16	2	7	19
2022/23	9	0	3	22
2021/22	30	1	9	20

*Other includes non RC/Christian siblings, EHCP, LAC, PLA and distance criteria

128. The reduced PAN would include sufficient places for Roman Catholic children living both within and outside the parishes.

Housing Development

129. One housing development is being completed at Lowfield Green. Although there has been a low pupil yield since the first houses were occupied, a primary pupil yield of approximately 40 children is projected. There is capacity in local schools to place them.

Recommendations

130. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

School	Proposal	Recommendation	Reason
St Wilfrid’s RC School	Reduce PAN from 40 to 30 pupils	Support	School has been undersubscribed for a number of years. Classes can be more efficiently organised with a reduced PAN. This will also reduce the number of surplus places in the area.

Proposal to Reduce the Published Admission Number (PAN) at St Wilfrid’s RC Primary School from 40 to 30

131. Background

Current Number on Roll (NOR) January 2024
Reception	22
Y1	28
Y2	35
Y3	41
Y4	39
Y5	35
Y6	44
NOR	244

132. St Wilfrid’s is included in Primary Planning Area 1 (PPA1) to ensure there are sufficient school places for the local area. Forecasts have been produced for the planning area, based on birth, migration and parental preference rates. The other schools in the planning area are Haxby Road, Huntington Primary, New Earswick, Park Grove and Yearsley Grove.

Birth Rates

133. Birth rates in PPA1 have fallen in recent years and are not projected to rise by the ONS.

	Actual Births					Projected Births
Reception	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30
Birth	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
PPA1	269	269	213	230	199	210	184	163

134. PPA1 (especially in towards the city centre) tends to have negative birth to reception migration; more children are born in the catchment than are living there when applying for reception places. The current average reduction is 15% from birth to reception.

135. The number of pre-school children registered with a GP in the planning area suggests that the migration is becoming more variable but that numbers continue to be lower than previously in the catchment following the reduction in birth rate.

Reception	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Birth Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Age 0				185	182	172	163
Age 1			208	183	206	186
Age 2		193	201	177	211
Age 3	223	192	205	183
Age 4	219	200	216

In year migration

136. Cohorts in the planning area change over time due to in-year migration with children leaving and joining the school. The number in each year group can go up or down, with this planning area usually gaining children as they move through primary school. Any change in PAN should leave capacity to provide places for any children moving into the planning area.

	Number of pupils
	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24
Current Y1						215	221
Current Y2					224	226	233
Current Y3				248	246	242	248
Current Y4			252	252	249	250	253
Current Y5		239	234	230	236	235	243
Current Y6	240	237	251	250	250	257	260

Planning Area Forecasts

137. Forecasts within Primary Planning Area 1 suggest it would be appropriate to reduce the PAN. The PAN change would go some way to reducing the projected overall surplus in school places across the planning area.

Without PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	200	211	191	170	171	171	171
Reception capacity	275	275	260	260	260	260	260
Surplus	75	64	69	90	89	89	89

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1652	1660	1611	1527	1464	1407	1351
Whole school capacity	1925	1925	1910	1895	1880	1865	1850
Surplus	273	265	299	368	416	458	499

With PAN change

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Reception demand	200	211	191	170	171	171	171
Reception capacity	275	275	250	250	250	250	250
Surplus	75	64	59	80	79	79	79

Year	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28	28/29	29/30	30/31
Whole school demand	1652	1660	1611	1527	1464	1407	1351
Whole school capacity	1925	1925	1900	1875	1850	1825	1800
Surplus	273	265	289	348	386	418	449

Catchments of children allocated St Wilfrid’s

138. Reducing the PAN at St Wilfrid’s would have some impact on other local schools. However, children come from a large number of different catchments so any children not placed at St Wilfrid’s could be absorbed into alternative schools if needed.

Roman Catholic children attending St Wilfrid’s

	RC living in parish	RC other	Christian	Other*
2024/25	15	1	3	10
2023/24	6	4	1	14
2022/23	15	6	3	7
2021/22	20	4	6	6

*Other includes non RC/Christian siblings, EHCP, LAC, PLA and distance criteria

136. The reduced PAN would include sufficient places for Roman Catholic children living both within and outside the parish.

Housing Developments

137. One housing development which may have a direct impact on St Wilfrid’s is currently being built at the Cocoa Works on Haxby Road. 184 houses are planned, projected to need approximately 60 primary school places. As there is a surplus of places forecast for the area, there should be sufficient places for them with a reduced PAN at St Wilfrid’s.

Recommendations

138. In summary, we would support the proposal for the school to reduce its PAN as we understand the financial pressure the school will be under if it is unable to do so.

Admission Policies

139. The LA has consulted with relevant admission authorities on the proposed admissions arrangements for the 2026-27 school year. The City of York has proposed the published admission number (PAN) for all schools, highlighting any changes in Annex Ah. The City of York proposed coordinated schemes and admissions policies are set out in Annexes C-G. Policies for voluntary aided and academy schools are contained in Annexes H-Y with Year 12 admissions policies contained in Annexes Z-Ag.

140.The coordinated schemes Annexes C-E are applicable to all state funded schools in York including community, voluntary controlled, voluntary aided and academy schools.

141.The City of York admissions policy for each year of entry is applicable to all schools for which the LA is the admission authority; that is all community and voluntary controlled schools. Voluntary aided and academy schools operate their own admissions policies; though as stated above, those of schools that have recently become their own admission authorities are almost identical to the admissions policies for community and voluntary controlled schools. The LA assists in the formulation and maintenance of these other policies each year whilst these schools maintain their wish for the similarity of these policies to the LA’s own policies to the benefit of residents.

142. The City of York admissions policies have had no significant changes from those determined in 2024 for 2025-2026 admission.

VA and Academy Proposals

143. There are no significant proposed changes to the draft admission policies to date. The policies are provided by voluntary aided and academy schools, who are their own admission authorities, from those determined last year.

Catchment Areas

144. Catchment areas are designed to be reasonable and clearly defined. The following factors are taken into account when considering changes in catchment area:

a) The number of children (pupil yield) expected from new housing developments.

b) The geographical location of new housing developments in relation to nearby schools and the associated ease of travel.

c) The PAN and net capacity of nearby schools and their ability to accommodate additional pupils or, where appropriate, the school’s ability to expand.

d) The number of children living within the catchment area; historically, currently and the number forecast to be living within the catchment area in the future.

e) The trend in school preferences both into and out of the catchment area.

f) The schools named in the Section 106 agreements for new housing developments and therefore the associated potential funding available for any necessary expansion work.

145. There are no catchment changes proposed within this consultation.

Admission Consultation Responses

146. All maintained schools and academies in York were asked for their comments on admission arrangements and proposed PANs. The consultation survey had 13 respondents who left their contact details with the survey being accessed 31 times.

147. The open admission consultation which was available to the general public, stakeholders and other interested parties the consultation survey had 6 respondents who left their contact details with the survey being accessed 12 times.

148. Any responses/comments relating directly to a proposed change by a Multi Academy Trust have been forwarded to the Trust to consider within their admission arrangements determination.

149. Any additional responses/comments relating directly to the consultation and City of York proposals or the consultation process have been categorised below as either PAN consultation response, admission policy consultation response or catchment area consultation response.

PAN Consultation Responses

150. The only PAN response received was – “I was surprised to see a number of primary schools have reduced their intake numbers. This is not widely available or known and I only noticed as my daughters school is on the list to reduce PAN.” The Admission Consultation is circulated to all schools and Multi Academy Trusts, schools and Trusts are then asked to publicise the consultation on their websites and in communication to parents/carers such as in newsletters. There is added importance to publish the consultation where there are to be changes to a school’s admissions arrangements. The consultation is also publicised through the City of York Council Consultation page and through City of York Council social media. Officers will speak to the Communication Team for suggestions on how to further publicise the Admission Consultation in the future.

Admission Policy Consultation Responses

151. An Admission Policy consultation response received was – “Some of the documents are quite wordy and are difficult for my husband to follow as he has a visual impairment. More spaces between paragraphs would be more accessible for him. Also having something visual like a flow chart might help him to better comprehend the process timescales. As for having some text in red that shows an update or change passed him by completely. Perhaps putting key information in a box would be a better solution.” The admission policies, where City of York Council is the author, are made accessible in line with accessibility guidelines. Admission policies for other organisations are the responsibility of the owner organisation and are only hosted by City of York Council and therefore cannot be amended. However this response will be passed to all other Admission Authorities for their consideration. If there are any queries relating to admission arrangements, the City of York Council Admissions Team are available to answer any questions.

152. A second response regarding Admission Policies received – “I found no problem finding out all the above information on the CYC website, however if I was not online or have ready access I wonder how easy it would be to obtain all the info in one place.” Copies of all consultation documents can be requested either via email or phone which can then be printed and posted to any address. The documents are hosted online so that respondents can easily check any document for a school of their interest rather than providing or hosting one document containing all draft documents which if printed would be a considerable cost. Officers will continue to review the Admission Consultation processes and practices.

Catchment Area Changes Responses

153. There are no catchment area changes.

154. The catchment area response received - “I find the "catchment areas" for the schools puzzling. As I see we live in the catchment for Joseph Rowntree even though both Huntington and Vale of York are closer to our address.” A catchment school is not necessarily the closest school to address, catchment areas are drawn to take into account a number of factors and are regularly reviewed to ensure school place sufficiency. A catchment school can be identified both on the interactive catchment map and catchment maps online. Parents/carers can also contact the Admissions Team either by email or phone for confirmation on catchment schools.

Organisational Impact and Implications

155. The report demonstrates that all relevant implications of the proposals have been considered with the service area responses shown below.

· Financial, Changes to admission limits at schools have no direct impact on Local Authority funding as the council will continue to be funded for all pupils at the same level, regardless of the schools that they attend. For individual schools pupil numbers do have an impact on school funding, particularly if the school is changing in size, as pupil led funding is lagged (based on the previous autumn census numbers for the following financial year). For schools that are growing the additional pupils will not be funded for the first 7 months (12 months for academies). However, depending on the scale and reason for the growth, the school may be eligible for some funding from the pupil growth fund.

· Human Resources (HR), No CYC HR implications

· Legal, contact, Admission arrangements for all schools, whether the relevant admission authority is the Local Authority, Governing Body, or Academy Trust, must comply with the requirements of the School Admissions Code 2021 (issued under the School Standards and Framework Act 1998) (the “Code”).

· Where an admission authority proposes a reduction to the Published Admission Number, consultation is required under the Code. The consultation carried out between 7th October and 18th November 2024 complies with all relevant requirements of the Code.

· Under the Code, parents have the right to appeal against any decision to refuse their child a place at a school for which they have applied, a process which is further governed by the School Admission Appeals Code 2022. Where a reduction in PAN for any of the schools mentioned in this report leads to a higher number of refusals, there is a chance that more parents will choose to appeal against those refusals. Where pupils are being “pushed back” to schools in other areas, those schools may also see higher numbers of appeals as there will be more pupils competing for available places. Although an appeals panel must take PAN into account when hearing an appeal, this will not be the sole deciding factor and therefore places may be granted at appeal even where this would put the school above PAN.

· Procurement, There are no procurement implications.

Health and Wellbeing, Access to education is a key health determinant. Attending school is associated with improved physical, mental, and social health and wellbeing in childhood and many of these health benefits are carried throughout a person’s life. This report has considered the birth rate fluctuations across the city to continue to ensure that the local authority is fulfilling its statutory duties in providing school places for all children living in York.

· Environment and Climate action, A school admissions process which encourages children to attend their local school has beneficial implications in terms of environment with lower emissions and they are more likely to use sustainable modes of travel.

· Affordability, This report ensures fair access to educational opportunity; to help fulfil every child's educational potential and opportunities going forward.

· Equalities and Human Rights, An Equalities Impact Assessment is attached at Annex A. Those with relevant protected characteristics, such as SEND and Veterans/Armed Forces families have been considered in the arrangements.

· Data Protection and Privacy, - The data protection impact assessment (DPIAs) screening questions were completed for the options in this report and as there is no personal, special categories or criminal offence data being processed there is no requirement to complete a DPIA for this. However, the relevant data protection requirements were considered and in place for the for the consultation itself.

· Communications, Communications welcomes the information contained in the report. We recommend that a robust communications plan is put in place to clearly communicate the outcomes of the report, and that sufficient resource is allocated to deal with any reactive statements.

· Economy, There are no direct economic impacts arising from the proposals in your report.

Risks and Mitigations

156. There are no risks associated with service area implications set out above.

157. The risk of PAN changes is that if not properly forecasted and constantly reviewed that there may not be sufficient school places in the city however data is reviewed to identify and respond to pupil pressures and schools reducing their PAN are advised not to make any changes to school that would reduce the capacity of the school to allow for PAN changes in the future for example in response to new developments in the area. Pupil planning is reviewed and shared with stakeholders and Department for Education.

Wards Impacted

158. All Wards

Contact details

For further information please contact the authors of this Decision Report.

Author

Name:	Rachelle White
Job Title:	School Admissions Manager
Service Area:	Education Support Services
Telephone:	01904 554239
Email:	Rachelle.white@york.gov.uk
Report approved:	Yes
Date:	25 November 2024

Co-author

Name:	Claire Roberts
Job Title:	Place Planning Officer
Service Area:	Education Support Services
Email:	Claire.Roberts@york.gov.uk
Report approved:	Yes
Date:	25 November 2024

Background papers

None.

Annexes

Annex A	Equalities Impact Assessment (EIA)
Annex B	Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA)
Annex C	Coordinated Admissions Scheme - Primary and Infant Schools for Reception DRAFT
Annex D	Coordinated Admission Scheme – Junior schools for Year 3 DRAFT
Annex E	Coordinated Admissions Scheme – Secondary Schools for Year 7 DRAFT
Annex F	CVC Admissions Policy – Primary and Infant schools for reception DRAFT
Annex G	CVC Admissions Policy – Secondary Schools for Year 7 DRAFT
Annex H	All Saints Roman Catholic School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex I	Archbishop Holgate’s Church of England School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex J	Ebor Academy Trust – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex K	Ebor Academy Trust – In Year Policy DRAFT
Annex L	Excel Learning Trust - Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex M	Heworth Church of England Primary School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex N	Hope Sentamu Learning Trust – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex O	Manor Church of England Academy – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex P	Naburn Church of England Primary School – Admissions Policy
Annex Q	Our Lady Queen of Martyrs Roman Catholic Primary School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex R	Pathfinder MAT – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex S	South York MAT – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex T	St. Aelred’s Catholic Primary School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex U	St. George’s Roman Catholic Primary School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex V	St. Wilfrid’s Roman Catholic Primary School – Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex W	Archbishop Holgate’s Church of England School – Supplementary Information Form DRAFT
Annex X	Heworth Church of England Primary School – Supplementary Information Form DRAFT
Annex Y	Manor Church of England Academy – Supplementary Information Form DRAFT
Annex Z	All Saint’s Roman Catholic School - Year 12 Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex Aa	Archbishop Holgate’s Church of England School - Year 12 Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex Ab	Fulford School - Year 12 Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex Ac	Huntington School - Year 12 Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex Ad	Joseph Rowntree School - Year 12 Admissions Policy DRAFT
Annex Ae	Huntington School - Year 12 Application Form DRAFT
Annex Af	Joseph Rowntree School - Year 12 Application Form – Internal Students DRAFT
Annex Ag	Joseph Rowntree School - Year 12 Application Form – External Students DRAFT
Annex Ah	Published Admission Number Matrix
Annex Ai	In Year Coordinated Admissions Scheme - DRAFT
Annex Aj	In Year Admissions Policy for Community and Voluntary Controlled Schools – DRAFT
Annex Ak	Primary School Application Form 2026 DRAFT
Annex Al	Junior School Application Form 2026 DRAFT
Annex Am	Secondary School Application Form 2026 DRAFT